Vacation rental ROI calculator for the Riviera Maya

Every cost, every income, and an honest idea

This calculator doesn't promise you a number: it lets you model your own scenario with the costs the brochure tends to omit. The question it answers is not "how much will I earn?" —nobody knows that— but "how much would it have to rent for the numbers to work, and is that realistic?".

You set the occupancy, and rightly so

There is no official source for vacation-rental (Airbnb) occupancy in Mexico — not for Tulum, not for Cancún, not for any zone. What does exist, and we publish as a reference, is the hotel occupancy from Sedetur and Sectur: it tells you whether tourists are arriving at the destination, not what your unit will rent. And your apartment's occupancy depends on things no calculator can guess: your photos, your manager, your décor, your dynamic pricing and your reviews. Two identical apartments in the same building perform differently depending on who operates them. That's why you set the number, and we give you three scenarios to see the range.

The destination's demand (official reference 2025–2026)

Hotel occupancy per Sedetur (Quintana Roo's Tourism Secretariat) and federal Sectur — as a signal that the destination has demand, not as a forecast for your unit:

Sources: Quintana Roo Tourism Secretariat (Sedetur) and federal Tourism Secretariat (Sectur/DATATUR), 2025–2026 reports. These are figures for tourist-category hotels, which vary by season; the annual average of a short-term rental unit usually runs below.

The eight costs this calculator subtracts

1. Platform fee. Airbnb charges ~3% to the host and 14-20% to the guest (which affects your demand). Booking.com 15-18% to the host. Vrbo 8% + 8%. 2. Property management (20-30%). If you don't live there, someone has to handle check-ins, cleaning, repairs and guests. It's unavoidable, not optional — and it's your biggest lever: cutting it from 25% to 15% moves ROI more than any tax trick. 3. Condo HOA: $40-90 MXN/m² per month in premium developments. 4. Electricity, water and internet. 5. Cleaning and amenities. 6. Lodging tax: Quintana Roo charges 6% for apartments, houses and private villas rented by the host or via platform (arts. 4-V and 8 of the State Lodging Tax Law), additional to the VAT the platform withholds. 7. Property tax and insurance. 8. Repairs reserve: ~1.5% of value per year — the sun, salt and humidity of the Caribbean take their toll. After the eight, income tax applies by regime.

Income tax, without fatalism or smoke

There are legal ways for the tax to weigh less, but it pays to be exact so we don't sell you an illusion. The platform withholds income tax as a provisional payment (art. 113-A ITL), not a final one. RESICO does not apply to platform income (rule 3.13.3, 2026 Tax Resolution), though many sell it as the shortcut. The biggest real tax lever is for U.S. buyers: without the net-basis election (procedure 26/ISR + rule 3.18.5), art. 158 charges them 25% on gross income with no deductions; with it, they're taxed on profit. It's a SAT procedure, renewed yearly, that almost nobody mentions.

An honest note: for a Mexican resident, the whole tax chapter moves only a few tenths of a point. If your cash-flow ROI is low, it's not the tax that sinks it — it's the eight operating costs. The real lever you control is negotiating property management. Nautilus describes the regimes with their statute; we don't give tax advice. Confirm your case with an accountant.

Cash flow and appreciation are not the same

It's the sector's most profitable confusion. Cash flow is what stays in your pocket each year. Appreciation (4-6% per year) only materializes the day you sell, and depends on a future market nobody controls. Publishing only the combined number, without saying which part is money and which is expectation, is what everyone does. Here they go separate. And if someone promises you 12-15% net ROI, ask for the full proforma with the eight costs; if they can't give it, keep looking.