Tulum lived an irrational cycle between 2019 and 2022. After that, reality: sargassum, safety concerns, cost inflation, and Airbnb oversupply hit hard. Many investors who bought at peak saw their numbers drop. This post doesn't sell you Tulum — it shows you how it really looks today, so you can decide with real information.
What changed between 2022 and 2026
| Metric | Peak 2022 | Reality 2024-25 | 2026 trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Airbnb occupancy | 72% | 56% | 60-65% |
| Average ADR (USD/night) | $185 | $128 | $135-$145 |
| Active Airbnb inventory | ~4,800 | ~9,200 | ~8,500 (contracting) |
| Downtown price per m² (USD) | $3,600 | $2,900 | $2,950 |
| Average cap rate | 8-10% | 5-7% | 6-8% |
Translation: if someone promises 12-15% ROI in Tulum in 2026, ask them for the full proforma with every expense included. The market stabilized at 6-8% realistic net. It's a decent investment, but not the same one from 4 years ago.
The expenses no one tells you about
The developer's pitch usually stops at gross rent minus Airbnb commission. Reality has more layers:
1. Platform fees
- Airbnb: 3% host fee + 14-20% guest fee (affects demand)
- Booking.com: 15-18% host fee
- Vrbo: 8% host + 8% guest
2. Property management (20-30%)
If you don't live in Tulum, you need someone handling check-ins, cleaning, repairs, guest communication and photography. It's an unavoidable expense, not optional.
3. Condo HOA
Premium Tulum developments charge $2.2-$5 USD/m² monthly. For an 80 m² unit: $175-$400 USD/month ($2,100-$4,800/year).
4. Lodging tax
Quintana Roo charges a 3.5% lodging tax on top of VAT (Airbnb captures VAT automatically). If your Airbnb isn't registered, the tax authority can fine you retroactively.
5. Internal amenities and maintenance
- Deep cleaning monthly: $140-$250 USD
- Netflix/Spotify/premium Wi-Fi: $65 USD/month
- Linens, towels, amenities replenishment: $45-$85 USD/month
- Quarterly pest control: $40-$70 USD
- Repair reserve: 1-2% of property value annually
6. Annual taxes
- Property tax (predial): 0.1-0.3% of cadastral value
- Income tax on platform income: 20-30% of profit
Real proforma: $250,000 USD condo in Aldea Zama
Concrete 2026 example — 2 bedrooms, 95 m², fully furnished:
| Item | Amount (USD/year) | % of gross |
|---|---|---|
| Gross income (ADR $135 × 60% × 365) | $29,565 | 100% |
| − Platform fee (Airbnb mix, 14%) | -$4,139 | -14% |
| − Property manager (25%) | -$7,391 | -25% |
| − HOA | -$3,400 | -11.5% |
| − Utilities / internet | -$1,800 | -6% |
| − Cleaning / amenities | -$2,200 | -7.4% |
| − Lodging tax (3.5%) | -$1,035 | -3.5% |
| − Property tax + insurance | -$900 | -3% |
| − Repair reserve (1.5%) | -$3,750 | -12.7% |
| Net income before taxes | $4,950 | 16.7% |
| − Income tax (25%) | -$1,238 | -4.2% |
| Net after-tax income | $3,712 | 12.5% |
| Net ROI on $250K investment | 1.48% cashflow + appreciation | |
That 1.48% is cashflow only. Add expected appreciation of 4-6% annually on the same property, and your total return reaches 5.5-7.5% annually. That's the honest 2026 Tulum number for a mid-market property.
When Tulum makes sense
Not every scenario is the same. Tulum works if:
- You buy in pre-sale at 2024 prices with 2027-2028 delivery — cheap entry, renting once the cycle improves
- You have personal use: 6-10 weeks a year there, and rent covers fixed costs
- You want diversification: Tulum as 10-20% of a larger real estate portfolio, not the only play
- You're betting on Tren Maya + new airport: accessibility improved and the long-term trend is positive
- You buy exclusive villa (not generic condo): Villa Amara, Villa Arghy, Casa Chic generate ADR well above average
When Tulum is NOT your best move
- You need high, stable cashflow from month 1 — Cancún and Playa del Carmen have more stable occupancy
- You buy as the only investment property in your portfolio — risk concentration
- Someone promises you 12-15% net ROI — market numbers don't support that in 2026
- Federal highway zone / outside the Zama-Downtown-Hotel corridor: occupancy drops to 35-45%
Honest comparison: Tulum vs Playa del Carmen vs Cancún
| Zone | Realistic net ROI | Occupancy | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cancún Hotel Zone | 7-9% | 75-82% | Low |
| Puerto Cancún | 6-8% | 65-72% | Low-medium |
| Playa del Carmen Downtown | 7-10% | 68-78% | Medium |
| Tulum (2026) | 5-8% | 55-65% | Medium-high |
| Isla Mujeres | 6-9% | 60-70% | Medium |
Conclusion
Tulum in 2026 is a decent investment, not the best one on the market. The irrational 2021-22 peak is over and numbers normalized. If you know what to expect (6-8% net, not 15%), enter cheap in pre-sale or exclusive villa, and diversify with Cancún or Playa del Carmen, the story is positive.
If anyone tells you otherwise, ask for the full proforma with every expense included. If they can't give it to you, keep looking.