Tulum lived an irrational cycle between 2019 and 2022. After that, reality: sargassum, safety concerns, cost inflation, and Airbnb oversupply hit hard. Many investors who bought at peak saw their numbers drop. This post doesn't sell you Tulum — it shows you how it really looks today, so you can decide with real information.
Where we start: the two figures that do have a source
Before adding up costs you need to know what comes in, and only two figures here can be backed with their origin and period:
| Figure | Value | Source and period |
|---|---|---|
| Average Airbnb occupancy in Tulum | 28.9% | AirROI, June 2025 – May 2026 |
| Price per m², beachfront Tulum | $127,247 MXN (≈$7,300 USD) | Nautilus own measurement, 38 units, 10-Aug-2026 cut-off |
What that price per m² covers and what it does not: our Tulum inventory is bay-side —Bahía Tankah ($141,324 MXN/m², 22 units) and Bahía Solimán ($118,222 MXN/m², 16 units)—. It does not cover Aldea Zama or downtown, which is the area of the example below. It is our own measurement of developer list prices, not an official index, and the full dataset is published in our data section.
There used to be a table here comparing 2022, 2024-25 and 2026 on ADR, active inventory, price per m² and cap rate. We have removed it: of those figures only occupancy had a source. The rest told a story nobody measures, and on top of them rested a "realistic" market-wide net return that no organisation publishes either.
The expenses no one tells you about
About the figures in this section: platform fees are published by Airbnb, Booking and Vrbo on their own pricing pages. The lodging tax comes from state law, with its article. The rest are typical market ranges we see in contracts and bylaws, not figures published by any organisation — they are there to help you build your own calculation, and each one should be verified with your manager and the condominium bylaws before signing.
The developer's pitch usually stops at gross rent minus Airbnb commission. Reality has more layers:
1. Platform fees
- Airbnb: 3% host fee + 14-20% guest fee (affects demand)
- Booking.com: 15-18% host fee
- Vrbo: 8% host + 8% guest
2. Property management
If you don't live in Tulum, you need someone handling check-ins, cleaning, repairs, guest communication and photography. It's an unavoidable expense, not optional.
3. Condo HOA
Premium Tulum developments typically charge $2.2-$5 USD/m² monthly. For an 80 m² unit that is $175-$400 USD/month ($2,100-$4,800 a year). These are typical market ranges, not figures published by anyone: the exact fee is in the condominium bylaws, and you ask for it in writing before signing.
4. Lodging tax
Quintana Roo sets it in article 8 of its Lodging Tax Law: 5% as the general rate and 6% when the charge is collected through a technological or digital platform —which is the Airbnb or Booking case— (article as amended, State Official Gazette, 23 December 2022). It is on top of VAT. If your Airbnb isn't registered, the tax authority can fine you retroactively.
5. Internal amenities and maintenance
- Deep cleaning monthly: $140-$250 USD
- Netflix/Spotify/premium Wi-Fi: $65 USD/month
- Linens, towels, amenities replenishment: $45-$85 USD/month
- Quarterly pest control: $40-$70 USD
- Repairs reserve: set aside between 1% and 2% of property value per year. This is money put away, not return
6. Annual taxes
- Property tax (predial): 0.1-0.3% of cadastral value
- Income tax on rental income: the rate depends on your tax regime —Mexican individual with business activity, RESICO, digital platforms, non-resident foreigner—. We do not publish a percentage: run it with your accountant for your own case
The full breakdown: a $250,000 USD condo in Aldea Zama
Two bedrooms, 95 m², fully furnished. Same property, same costs, same $135 nightly rate. The only thing that changes between the two columns is how many nights it rents.
| Item | A · at 28.9% (market's real occupancy, AirROI) | B · at 60% (professional-operation assumption) |
|---|---|---|
| Gross income | $14,240 | $29,565 |
| − Platform fee (14%) | -$1,994 | -$4,139 |
| − Property manager (25%) | -$3,560 | -$7,391 |
| − Condo HOA (fixed) | -$3,400 | -$3,400 |
| − Electricity / water / internet (fixed) | -$1,800 | -$1,800 |
| − Cleaning / amenities | -$1,060 | -$2,200 |
| − Lodging tax (6%) | -$854 | -$1,774 |
| − Property tax + insurance (fixed) | -$900 | -$900 |
| − Repairs reserve (fixed) | -$3,750 | -$3,750 |
| Annual result before income tax | −$3,077 | $4,211 |
| On the $250,000 investment | −1.23% | +1.68% |
At the average occupancy Tulum's market actually had from June 2025 to May 2026, this property loses $3,077 USD a year before tax. That is not a pessimistic scenario: it is the average, with its source next to it.
The gap between the two columns is the whole article. It is $7,288 USD a year, and it does not depend on the purchase price or the area: it depends on beating the market average. Five costs on the list —HOA, utilities, property tax, insurance and the repairs reserve— are paid the same whether the unit is full or empty. That is why occupancy does not move the result gradually: it flips its sign.
The 60% in column B is not an average or a forecast: it is the assumption of an operation running well above its market. It can be reached —with differentiated product, a good manager and years of reviews— but nobody can promise it, and anyone who promises it is selling you column B as if it were column A.
On income tax: we do not put a percentage here because it depends on your tax regime —Mexican individual with business activity, RESICO, digital platforms, non-resident foreigner—. Run your own case with an accountant before signing, with column A next to column B.
When Tulum makes sense
Not every scenario is the same. Tulum works if:
- You buy in pre-sale at 2024 prices with 2027-2028 delivery — cheap entry, renting once the cycle improves
- You have personal use: 6-10 weeks a year there, and rent covers fixed costs
- You want diversification: Tulum as 10-20% of a larger real estate portfolio, not the only play
- You're betting on Tren Maya + new airport: accessibility improved and the long-term trend is positive
- You buy exclusive villa (not generic condo): Villa Amara, Villa Arghy, Casa Chic generate ADR well above average
When Tulum is NOT your best move
- You need high, stable cashflow from month 1 — Cancún and Playa del Carmen have more stable occupancy
- You buy as the only investment property in your portfolio — risk concentration
- Someone quotes you a specific net return without showing the occupancy behind it — ask for it, and compare it with the 28.9% above
- Federal highway zone, outside the Zama-Downtown-Hotel corridor: occupancy drops relative to the corridor, and we do not publish by how much because nobody measures it by micro-zone
Compared by price, not by promised return
There used to be a table here of estimated total return by zone —Cancun, Puerto Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Tulum, Isla Mujeres—. We have removed it entirely: none of those figures is published by any organisation, and they contradicted what we say in each area's own guide, where we no longer publish expected returns.
What can be compared is the entry price, measured by us on available inventory:
| Zone | Median $/m² | Units in the cut-off |
|---|---|---|
| Tulum (Bahía Tankah + Solimán) | $127,247 MXN · ≈$7,300 USD | 38 |
| Cancun Hotel Zone | $130,725 MXN · ≈$7,500 USD | 624 |
| Playa del Carmen Centro | $118,853 MXN · ≈$6,819 USD | 175 |
| Puerto Cancun | $97,265 MXN · ≈$5,580 USD | 175 |
| Playacar | $100,546 MXN · ≈$5,769 USD | 160 |
About these prices: the price-per-square-metre figures published in this article correspond to beachfront properties in Tankah and Bahía Solimán, August 2026 cut-off. We do not have a large enough sample for Aldea Zama to publish a median that represents that area.
Nautilus own measurement of developer list prices, 10 August 2026 cut-off, converted at 17.43 pesos to the dollar. It is not an official index and says nothing about returns: it says what a square metre costs today. The full dataset is in our data section. This section also carried a column of hotel occupancy by destination; we removed it on 16 August 2026 because its figures did not come from the bulletin they were attributed to, and because Datatur does not monitor Tulum — see our analysis of the June 2026 bulletin.
Conclusion
Tulum in 2026 can work, but not by default. The same property loses money at the market's average occupancy and makes money operating well above it, and that difference is decided neither by the area nor by the purchase price: it is decided by the operation. We do not publish an expected return because there is no single one that holds for everyone.
Before signing, ask for two things: the full pro forma with every expense and the actual occupancy history of that unit or its manager. If they give you the first without the second, they are selling you an assumption. If they give you neither, keep looking.